Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass identity markers, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they support unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has got important lessons to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
